[John Tyler Connoley,
Friday August 29, 2008 at 11:44am]
Prediction Markets and Accuracy
For what it's worth: According to an article written by Joce Berg, et al, and published in the International Journal of Forecasting (there's a journal for everything), prediction markets, like Intrade, are 74% more accurate for long time horizons -- 100 days out -- than polls. The conclusion is that you're better off at this stage in the race to read the prediction markets than the polling data.
The closer we get to election day, the less differentiation there is between polling accuracy and prediction market accuracy (although prediction markets remain slightly more accurate).
Download a pdf of the article here.